Mag 7 + SPY Expected Returns

Last updated: 2026-08-09 17:09 UTC / CAPM+CRP / Total Return Decomposition / FCFF DCF IRR

Top row methods: CAPM (Rf/ERP/Market ref lines) / Total Return (div+buyback+growth) / DCF IRR (implied by price)
Bottom row spreads: DCF−CAPM / TR−DCF / TR−CAPM — green = attractive, red = overvalued

Latest Snapshot

TickerCAPMTotal ReturnDCF IRRDCF−CAPMTR−DCFTR−CAPM
AAPL7.63%4.14%4.93%-2.70%-0.78%-3.48%
MSFT5.76%17.45%6.49%+0.73%+10.96%+11.69%
GOOGL5.55%13.82%5.44%-0.11%+8.38%+8.27%
AMZN5.78%11.73%4.43%-1.35%+7.30%+5.95%
NVDA7.75%21.19%6.03%-1.72%+15.16%+13.43%
META6.13%21.99%7.78%+1.65%+14.21%+15.86%
TSLA6.96%5.19%50.00%+43.04%-44.81%-1.76%
SPY6.38%9.10%N/AN/AN/A+2.72%
Rf1.01%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
ERP4.18%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Market (Rf+ERP)5.19%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Data: Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) / Yahoo Finance / Updated daily via OpenClaw
Not investment advice. SPY shown as market benchmark.