Mag 7 + SPY Expected Returns

Last updated: 2026-07-26 17:06 UTC / CAPM+CRP / Total Return Decomposition / FCFF DCF IRR

Top row methods: CAPM (Rf/ERP/Market ref lines) / Total Return (div+buyback+growth) / DCF IRR (implied by price)
Bottom row spreads: DCF−CAPM / TR−DCF / TR−CAPM — green = attractive, red = overvalued

Latest Snapshot

TickerCAPMTotal ReturnDCF IRRDCF−CAPMTR−DCFTR−CAPM
AAPL7.63%3.99%4.77%-2.85%-0.78%-3.63%
MSFT5.95%14.03%6.75%+0.80%+7.28%+8.08%
GOOGL5.55%13.96%5.76%+0.21%+8.20%+8.41%
AMZN5.78%11.73%4.80%-0.98%+6.93%+5.95%
NVDA7.75%21.28%6.31%-1.44%+14.98%+13.53%
META6.13%21.98%7.83%+1.70%+14.16%+15.85%
TSLA6.96%5.19%50.00%+43.04%-44.81%-1.76%
SPY6.38%8.46%N/AN/AN/A+2.07%
Rf1.01%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
ERP4.18%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Market (Rf+ERP)5.19%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Data: Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) / Yahoo Finance / Updated daily via OpenClaw
Not investment advice. SPY shown as market benchmark.