Mag 7 + SPY Expected Returns

Last updated: 2026-05-31 17:03 UTC / CAPM+CRP / Total Return Decomposition / FCFF DCF IRR

Top row methods: CAPM (Rf/ERP/Market ref lines) / Total Return (div+buyback+growth) / DCF IRR (implied by price)
Bottom row spreads: DCF−CAPM / TR−DCF / TR−CAPM — green = attractive, red = overvalued

Latest Snapshot

TickerCAPMTotal ReturnDCF IRRDCF−CAPMTR−DCFTR−CAPM
AAPL7.63%4.14%4.92%-2.70%-0.79%-3.49%
MSFT5.95%13.78%6.12%+0.17%+7.66%+7.83%
GOOGL5.55%13.74%5.22%-0.33%+8.52%+8.19%
AMZN5.78%11.73%4.48%-1.30%+7.25%+5.95%
NVDA7.75%21.26%6.23%-1.52%+15.02%+13.51%
META6.13%21.86%7.53%+1.39%+14.33%+15.73%
TSLA6.96%5.19%50.00%+43.04%-44.81%-1.76%
SPY6.38%8.93%N/AN/AN/A+2.54%
Rf1.01%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
ERP4.18%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Market (Rf+ERP)5.19%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Data: Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) / Yahoo Finance / Updated daily via OpenClaw
Not investment advice. SPY shown as market benchmark.